Shambaugh China essay in shambles

In the 1990s,some American scholars and journalists indulged themselves in forecasting a China collapse into several republics,like the Soviet Union.Some based their arguments on the growing regionalism in the country,others bet on the passing away of Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping.

To their disappointment,China has not disintegrated into six or seven republics.Instead it has become the world's second-largest economy and it is well on its way to being No 1.

Yet the rise of China has not discouraged some in the United States from continuing to fantasize about the breakup of China.

In his Wall Street Journal article"The Coming Chinese Crackup"on March 7,David Shambaugh,a China scholar at George Washington University,pronounced that the"endgame of Communist rule"in China has begun.But his article is based on some random and superficial facts,and his arguments can best be summarized as yipiangaiquan,(hasty generalization),or the English idiom-One swallow does not make a summer.

Shambaugh is right that no campaign can eliminate the problem of corruption.But no one should be so naive as to believe that corruption can be completely uprooted,either in China or in the US,where President Barack Obama has repeatedly complained about money in politics.

Shambaugh's deep flaw is that he looked at China with a bias,completely ignoring the positive aspects.

For example,the anti-corruption campaign launched by President Xi Jinping has raised hope for many Chinese that the thorny issue is being tackled.The campaign has been popular both at home and abroad,including winning support from senior Obama administration officials and many China scholars in Washington.In the past days,US scholars,both on the right and left,have questioned Shambaugh's logic.

I believe Xi and many Chinese know that fighting the war on corruption is really hard.Yet Shambaugh seems to suggest that doing nothing is probably a better way forward.

Shambaugh asserted that China's economic elite have one foot out of the door,and they are ready to flee en masse if the system really begins to crumble.Many entrepreneurs have been investing overseas.But this should be seen as a good sign of Chinese companies increasingly integrating into the global economy.Isn't wooing foreign direct investment into the US what Obama hopes for when he speaks later this month at the Select USA Summit.It does not make sense to assume that businesspeople,whether Chinese or American,will abandon the market of 1.37 billion people.And even the number Shambaugh proposed accounts for only a fraction of a nation with nearly a fifth of humanity.

Shambaugh,who is not an economist,sounded extremely pessimistic about the Chinese economic reform.That contrasts sharply to the wide applause China's Third Plenum reform program,unveiled in November 2013,has received in the US,from both US officials and economists.

The new normal of China's economic growth is rational:China is determined to accept slower growth to move up the supply chain and achieve sustainable growth.

Shambaugh even interpreted Chinese parents sending children to study abroad as a sign of the vulnerability of the system,rather than a positive outcome of a growing middle class who can afford doing things unimaginable in the past.Would he make the same argument for India,South Korea,Saudi Arabia and Canada,which follow China as the top sources for international students in the US?

In his haste,Shambaugh even cited the crackdown on Chinese"birth tourism"in Los Angeles a week ago as a major vulnerability of the Communist Party of China.Using the same logic,he might predict the demise of Mexico when many of their citizens cross the border illegally into the US.

If Shambaugh is to be regarded a serious scholar,he has certainly not shown it in his latest article.

    沈大偉混亂的中國論文

    早在1990年代，一些美國的學者和記者就沉迷於預測中國會像前蘇聯一樣崩潰而分裂成幾個國家。中國出現的一些地方主義和國家領導人鄧小平的去世都成為他們得出這樣預測的重要依據。

    讓他們失望的是中國非但沒有分崩離析成為六個或七個共和國，反而卻成了世界第二大經濟體，而且穩步向世界第一邁進。

    不過中國的崛起並沒有讓美國的一些人死心，他們繼續幻想著中國將要分裂。

    在3月7日華爾街日報上，喬治·華盛頓大學中國問題學者沈大偉（David Shambaugh）的“中國即將分崩離析”一文預言中國已進入“共産黨統治的殘局”階段。然而他這個結論卻是基於一些隨意和膚淺的事實，所以這樣的論斷最多也只能説是以偏概全，用英語諺語來説，就是見到一隻燕子並不能説夏天已來臨。

    沈大偉正確的地方是他説任何運動都不能根本剷除腐敗。事實是並沒有人天真認為腐敗是可以完全被剷除的，無論是在中國還是美國。美國總統奧巴馬也多次控訴金錢在干涉美國政治。

    沈大偉重大失誤就在於他帶着偏見看待中國，完全無視積極正面的因素。

    比如説，習近平主席的反腐運動讓很多中國人對解決這個棘手問題産生了期盼。而該運動在國內外廣受歡迎，得到了包括奧巴馬政府高級官員和華盛頓眾多研究中國的學者的支持。就在過去的一些日子，美國無論是左派還是右派的學者都對沈大偉的邏輯提出了質疑。

    我深信習主席和很多中國人都明白反腐鬥爭的艱巨性。然而沈大偉卻似乎認為無所作為反而會是最好的選擇。

    沈大偉斷言中國經濟界精英一隻腳已跨出國門，並且在中國體制垮&時會蜂擁逃離中國。確實很多企業家在海外投資，但這應該被視作中國公司在不斷融入全球經濟的好現象。難道奧巴馬本月下旬在“選擇美國投資峰會”上不就是希望吸引外國直接投資嗎？任何人以為中國或美國商人會拋棄13.7億人的市場都是沒有道理的。而沈大偉引用的數字與佔世界五分之一的中國人口相比都是微小的。

    沈大偉並不是經濟學家，但他對中國經濟改革卻表現出極度悲觀。與此形成極度反差的是美國官員和美國經濟學家對中國2013年11月三中全會公布的改革方案都&&了廣泛的支持。

    中國經濟改革的新常態是理性的決定。中國下決心接受經濟增長速度放緩這一事實，從而可以使中國經濟在全球供應鏈上更上一層樓，並使經濟持續發展。

    沈大偉甚至把中國家長送孩子到國外讀書解讀為中國體制脆弱的表現，而不去把這解讀為中國日益增長的中産階級有錢可以做以前不可想象的事情的正面現象。沈大偉是否會對印度、韓國、沙特和加拿大做出同樣的推斷呢？這些國家緊跟中國，也是美國國際學生的最主要來源國。

    沈大偉的草率還在於他把一週前洛杉磯當局對中國人“生育旅游”窩點的衝擊解讀為中共的致命落點。用他的邏輯，難道沈大偉會預言墨西哥會因很多國民偷渡到美國也將崩潰？

    如果沈大偉被認為是一位嚴肅的學者，那他絕對沒有在最近文章中得到體現。