PARIS, March 14 (Xinhua) -- "The European Union will not be let down by (U.S. President) Donald Trump," said Jean-Dominique Giuliani, president of the Robert Schuman Foundation, a French center on European issues.
In an interview with Xinhua, Giuliani said the European Union "will find the means to react because it is unanimous enough to be less dependent on U.S. citizens".
U.S. PROTECTIONISM
U.S. protectionism can have a "positive" impact on the Sino-European relationship, according to the expert who noted "discussions are underway between China and the European Union for a free trade agreement".
"The Sino-European relationship is good but the European Union wants the Chinese market to be more open to investors... Europeans are more open to Chinese products than U.S. citizens, but the EU is looking for a better reciprocity with China," he said.
"Politically, the two powers share the same points of view on major global issues such as governance, environment, conflict and a stable Asia is in the interest of Europe," said Giuliani.
"No one has any interest in a trade war, especially since the European Union remains the world's largest trading power. Europe remains for the United States as for China, the world's largest consumer market and that won't change all of a sudden, even without Britain," he added.
Giuliani noted that Brexit has little impact on the EU economy which reported the same growth rate as the United States in 2016, mainly due the European central bank policy and convergence of economic approach of the bloc's leading powers.
"It's not yet sufficient but there are important presidential election this year particularly in France, where the presidential election could bring the missing link to a more sustained recovery and a more respected and strengthened euro governance."
"The only major European economy that has not made major reforms is France whose economy is certainly growing but less than others, so we expect a political alternation that should be good news not just for France," he said.
POPULISM TREND IN EUROPE
However, the expert pointed out that rising populism was challenging the EU which he said "is struck by a feeling of retreat in reaction to globalization which has increased inequalities notably in terms of scientific advances, including digitization which changes the value chains and so jobs".
"The issue of immigration feed populism which uses it as a pretext for fuelling fear, rising demand for borders as what we see in the United States, Korea and Japan," said Giuliani.
According to him, Europe is more exposed "because of its proximity to the Mediterranean and Central Asia. Africa's population is expected to double by 2050, and conflicts in the Levant are far from being solved."
"Today, there is a considerable effort to be made in training, retraining and investment in future technologies. It's a much more vital issue for Europe because the unity of the European Union is incomplete.
"It's not a state and therefore it is more difficult to walk all at the same pace in order to have results that can reduce the tendencies, recourse to identity politics, populism and nationalism," he said.
Another major factor for Brexit is euro-skepticism, which is "the other pretext" on which the populists rely, Giuliani noted.
"There is currently a kind of fatigue of the 60-year-old European Union, and obviously it has to adapt too, because it is a two-level democracy, which raises problems of legitimacy, management and acceptance of regulatory constraints," he said.
ELECTION EFFECT
Speaking about the upcoming presidential election in France, Giuliani predicted "a high score for the far-right whose speech and ideas represent a dangerous mixture".
Moderate European right parties, notably in France, Germany and the Netherlands (countries where elections are scheduled for 2017), "develop themes close to those of far-right without crossing the red line, such as review of the Schengen agreement, strengthening of the European Union borders control," he added.
"There is an important right-wing influence on moderate right-wing politics in Europe and, in any case, all candidates for the French presidential elections speak about migration and security issues," he said.
Asked about European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker's white paper on possible post-Brexit scenarios, Giuliani stressed the "European Union is a union of sovereign states that want to bring their peoples closer".
"The ball is in the states' court and it is likely that we will see the option chosen at the end of the year after this election year," he said.
According to Giuliani, the 27-member European bloc is "very divided", so it is up to some member states to set an example in terms of defense, security and governance in the euro area, which should be strengthened so that this doubt on its sustainability stops.
Furthermore, migration also tests European integrity as Eastern and Western European countries express different stances. "Much progress has been made to receive refugees following the wave of migrants coming from Syria," he said.
Fortifying the external borders of European Union member states and empowering Frontex is therefore "a good thing" but must "go further".
"There is a need to find true European solidarity in this matter," he said.
