by Eric J. Lyman
ROME, Feb. 2 (Xinhua) -- Risks that the dominant Italian political party of the last generation could collapse or split were on the rise after a former prime minister said he was mulling plans to set up his own splinter party to oppose the influence of a resurgent Matteo Renzi.
Italy's Democratic Party has been a senior partner in 11 of Italy's 15 governments since the dust settled from the political turmoil of the early 1990s. That is more than any other of Italy's dozens of political parties.
But the rise of Renzi, the 42-year-old former mayor of Florence who was prime minister for almost three years ending in December, is now potentially threatening to pull the party apart.
The latest move came from 67-year-old Massimo D'Alema, who headed two consecutive governments between 1998 and 2000. Last week, D'Alema announced he was exploring the possibility of forming a breakaway party focused mostly on opposing Renzi, who stepped down after losing a key referendum vote and is already plotting comeback.
Paolo Gentiloni, who had been Renzi's minister of foreign affairs, succeeded Renzi as prime minister but he is a Renzi supporter and is unlikely to stand in the way of his former boss.
"In recent years, the split [within the Democratic Party] has always been the older, traditional wing of the party and younger members of the party," Daniela Giannetti, a political scientist with the University of Bologna, told Xinhua.
"They've clashed before, when Renzi had to overcome the leadership of [former minister and Democratic Party Secretary Pier Luigi] Bersani. Now it is surfacing again."
Earlier this week, D'Alema and Renzi traded repeated barbs in the Italian media, and on Wednesday, Bersani spoke up to warn Renzi risked killing off the party. All this takes place among uncertainty when elections could take place: a national vote is scheduled to take place in April 2018, but there is a rising possibility that it could be moved up to the second half of this year.
Experts say Renzi is a polarizing figure in part because he rose up outside the traditional path through the party ranks, and when he took power he pushed aside some long-standing party figures and took on a reform agenda that did not always match the party's priorities.
According to Lorenzo De Sio, an expert on political issues and public opinion with Rome's LUISS University, the fact that D'Alema appears to represent the traditional wing of the Democratic Party probably limits his chances.
"If the person making a move like this was one of the more energetic and innovative figures in the party it might make a bigger impact," De Sio said in an interview, "But that hardly describes Massimo D'Alema."
Still, D'Alema's support levels could be significant. The Italian daily "Corriere della Sera" said this week that D'Alema could earn as much as 10 to 15 percent of the vote -- a level of support that would leave it far short of winning the premiership but would nonetheless make it the country's third or fourth most important party.
Pollsters told Xinhua that whatever level of support D'Alema might have now shift dramatically once an election campaign gets underway.
But even if D'Alema's support ends up being half its current levels, it could have a profound impact by making the controversial and populist Five-Star movement the country's leading party.
"Right now, the Democratic Party and the Five-Star Movement each have support levels of around 30 percent," De Sio said, "If you take away just a few percentage points from the Democratic Party, it could hand an electoral victory to the Five-Star Movement."
